U.S. stocks staged a dramatic reversal on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average swinging more than 1,100 points from its session low to close in positive territory after President Donald Trump signaled that the 10-day war against Iran could be nearing its end.
The Dow finished the session up 239.25 points, or 0.5%, at 47,740.80 after falling nearly 900 points earlier in the day. The S&P 500 climbed 0.83% to close at 6,795.99, and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.38% to settle at 22,695.95. All three indexes had been deep in the red before Trump’s comments triggered a sharp afternoon recovery.
Trump Says Iran War Is “Very Complete, Pretty Much”
The turnaround began around 3:15 p.m. ET when Trump told CBS News reporter Weijia Jiang that the war was “very complete, pretty much,” adding that Iran now has “no navy, no communications, they’ve got no Air Force.” When pressed on whether the conflict would conclude this week, the president said “No,” but followed up with “Very soon.”
Trump also said the United States was “very far” ahead of his initial four to five week timeline for the military campaign. In a later statement, he added that the U.S. is “achieving major strides toward completing our military objective.” He also signaled plans to waive oil-related sanctions and predicted that crude prices would decline further.
Oil Prices Crater From Record Highs
The energy markets reacted immediately. West Texas Intermediate crude, which had topped $100 per barrel in overnight trading and briefly reached as high as $119, fell as much as 6% to settle near $85 per barrel. Brent crude pulled back to approximately $91.
Oil prices had been surging since the start of the Iran conflict, crossing the $100 threshold for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Trump previously called the spike a “very small price to pay” for eliminating what he described as the Iranian nuclear threat.
Why This Matters for Business Owners
The oil price spike has already begun hitting consumers and businesses across the country. Retail gasoline prices are projected to reach $4 per gallon by the end of the week, according to OPIS chief oil analyst Denton Cinquegrana. For entrepreneurs and small business owners who rely on shipping, transportation, and raw material imports, the elevated costs have been compounding pressure already created by ongoing tariffs.
If the conflict does wind down quickly as Trump suggests, oil prices could normalize and relieve some of the cost burden that has squeezed margins in recent weeks. However, analysts caution that the geopolitical picture remains uncertain and that markets could remain volatile until a formal ceasefire is confirmed.
Sector Winners and Losers
Monday’s session showed a clear divide across sectors. Defense stocks including RTX, Northrop Grumman, and Lockheed Martin continued to rise, each gaining roughly 1% and extending their monthly rallies. Airline stocks moved in the opposite direction, with Delta Air Lines, Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, United Airlines, and Southwest Airlines all falling between 2% and 3% on fears that elevated fuel costs would cut into margins.
The S&P 500 financials sector also remained under pressure, extending its decline for 2026 to approximately 10%. Private credit firms like Ares Management, Blackstone, KKR, and Apollo Global Management are among the worst performers this year, down between 26% and 33% as a wave of defaults and concerns about AI-driven disruption in the software lending sector weigh on sentiment.
Markets will likely remain sensitive to any new developments in the Iran conflict and to further signals from the White House about the campaign’s timeline. For now, Monday’s reversal offered a brief reprieve for investors who had endured weeks of uncertainty and rising costs.
