Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel on Monday as the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran continues to rattle global energy markets and send shockwaves through stock exchanges worldwide. Brent crude, the international benchmark, spiked more than 30% over the weekend, briefly topping $119 per barrel before settling near $108 in early Monday trading.
The price surge marks the first time oil has crossed $100 since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Crude prices have now risen roughly 50% since the U.S. and Israel launched joint military strikes on Iran on February 28, targeting leadership and military infrastructure in Tehran.
Strait of Hormuz Closure Threatens 20% of Global Oil Supply
Iran has effectively halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the strikes, threatening approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait, three of OPEC’s largest producers, have been forced to cut production as barrels pile up with no viable shipping route through the critical waterway.
The disruption has pushed U.S. gasoline prices to a national average of $3.48 per gallon as of Sunday, a 50-cent jump in just one week. California drivers are paying as much as $5.20, while states like Oklahoma are still below $3.00 despite daily increases.
Global Markets in Freefall
Stock markets around the world opened sharply lower on Monday. South Korea’s KOSPI index triggered a circuit breaker after falling nearly 8%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 sank 6.45%. European markets followed with the STOXX 600 falling nearly 2% at the open.
In the U.S., all major indices opened in the red. The Russell 2000 led declines at 1.4%, followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 1.19%, the S&P 500 at 0.94%, and the Nasdaq at 0.85%. The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” climbed 5% to 31.
The selloff extends a rough stretch for equities. Since the conflict began on February 28, the UK’s blue-chip FTSE 100 has fallen 5.74%, and South Korea’s KOSPI suffered its largest single-day crash since the 2008 financial crisis, plunging as much as 12% on March 4.
What It Means for U.S. Entrepreneurs and Small Businesses
The energy price shock arrives at a particularly challenging moment for founders and small business owners who are already navigating elevated operating costs. The International Monetary Fund estimates that every sustained 10% rise in oil prices results in a 0.4% increase in inflation and a 0.15% reduction in global economic growth.
For startups that rely on physical supply chains, logistics, or transportation, fuel costs are set to eat further into already tight margins. Businesses exploring multiple revenue streams and cost-efficient operating models may be better positioned to weather a prolonged energy price spike.
The venture capital market, which had shown signs of recovery in early 2026 with several major funding rounds, could also cool if inflation expectations climb. Higher energy costs historically weigh on consumer spending power and corporate earnings, two factors that VCs closely monitor when evaluating growth-stage investments.
The Outlook
Analysts warn that the economic impact could persist well beyond any ceasefire. Damaged infrastructure, disrupted shipping logistics, and elevated insurance premiums for vessels transiting the Persian Gulf are expected to keep energy prices volatile for weeks or months. Goldman Sachs and other major banks have warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices above $150 per barrel.
For now, the White House has announced a $20 billion Mideast maritime reinsurance program aimed at stabilizing shipping operations, but market participants remain skeptical that it will be enough to restore normal trade flows while hostilities continue. Entrepreneurs building lean operations with minimal exposure to energy-intensive supply chains may find themselves at an advantage as the global economy braces for an uncertain road ahead.
